This edition of our newsletter brings in to view Florida's 8th district, containing Walt Disney World, Universal Studios, and Sea World. This is another district represented by a Freshman Democrat, Alan Grayson, who replaced a long-time incumbent Republican in 2008. Republicans are targeting this district this cycle as a good of a pick-up. Full Analysis below.
FLORIDA’S 8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Background (from CQPolitics):
“One of Florida’s few landlocked districts, the 8th is powered by the presence of Walt Disney World, Sea World and Universal Studios’ resort in the Orlando area. The district surrounds western Orlando and includes upscale parts of the region, much of the city’s downtown area, and the Walt Disney World complex. It then pushes north to take in parts of Lake and Marion counties.
“Local tourism relies on out-of-state visitors and is vulnerable to economic slowdowns, but the industry is the 8th’s undisputed economic leader. The local economy has broadened to include a technology sector headed by Oracle and defense and aerospace contractor Lockheed Martin. New health care and medical research facilities in the southern part of the district may help insulate the 8th.
“Economic growth and redevelopment of downtown Orlando brought office parks and upscale condominiums to the city. A housing market collapse hurt the more well-to-do areas of the district, but a declining cost of living and plummeting home values have made once out-of-reach areas available for some of the tourism-based workforce.
“Residents of suburban Orange County tend to back Republicans on social and economic issues. The 8th’s population here is younger, wealthier and more educated than in most Florida districts, and the county’s Hispanic population, which is mostly of Democratic-leaning Puerto Rican heritage, has put the county within political reach of Democratic candidates. Barack Obama won 52 percent of the district’s presidential vote in 2008.”[1]
Electoral History & the 2010 Elections
In 2008, Representative Alan Grayson (D) unseated four-term incumbent Ric Keller (R) with a four-percentage point lead, or about 3,000 votes.[2] He is well-known for being outspoken about his beliefs – one day during the health care debate he berated the Republican Party for his perception of their health care policy: “don’t get sick,” and if you do get sick, “die quickly.”
Republicans are targeting this district for the 2010 Midterm elections, hoping to win it back for their party, especially because they argue he is too liberal for a historically Republican district. Republicans and other conservatives running include:
Kurt Kelly (R) – current Florida State Representative
Bruce O’Donoghue (R) – currently serves on the 9th Circuit Judicial Nominating Commission
Todd Long (R) – Lawyer who almost won the Republican primary in 2007
Dan Fanelli – Former Naval Aviator and Tea Party participant
Ken Miller – Physician
Patricia Sullivan – Tea Party participant
Grayson has raised over $2.3 million for his campaign
Bibliography
[1] “District Information – Politics in America District Profile” (CQPolitics) – http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=district-2010-FL-08
[2] “Florida – 8th District” - http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=district-2010-FL-08
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Interesting point about the 2008 election in this district: there was an 80% increase in the number of voters from the previous presidential election. The Acorn organization was very active in Orange County, where there was a significant increase in voters.
ReplyDeleteIn 2010, it is doubtful that the Acorn contingent will be back to vote for Alan Grayson. Barack Obama's campaign inspired a number of people to vote for the first time. For those of us who know Alan Grayson, it's clear that he will not be able to inspire voter turnout. Aside from being rather nasty, he's BORING...
Grayson is quite wealthy, however, so he can afford to buy quite a few votes by purchasing TV time, spreading money around, etc. So far, he has a commanding lead in fundraising, no doubt because he realizes he has a very difficult election ahead of him.
In Florida, it's rather expensive ($10,440) to buy a place on the ballot. A candidate may avoid the fee by collecting 4494 ballot petitions from voters within the district. Only one candidate seems to have chosen this option, Patricia Sullivan. Other candidates may leave the race, unwilling to pay the fee when they can't garner enough support to generate the required number of petitions.