Congressional Newsletter

This week we look at Michigan's 1st congressional district. Democrats dominate local politics in this district, but a majority of citizens are also strong social conservatives, and very pro gun rights:




Michigan’s 1st Congressional District

Background (from CQPolitics):

Beginning along the Saginaw Bay shore, the 1st stretches 25,000 square miles from Michigan’s northern Lower Peninsula to take in the entire Upper Peninsula (U.P.). Full of rolling, forested hills, the rural 1st encompasses 44 percent of Michigan’s land mass, but did not contain a single city with more than 20,000 residents at the time of the 2000 census.

Tourism is a major economic engine in the 1st, and many down-state residents head north to ski, hunt and fish. Touching three of the Great Lakes, the 1st has more freshwater shoreline than any other district in the continental United States. Mackinac Island, known for its prohibition on cars, its Victorian-style lake houses and its fudge, is a popular destination. Isle Royale, the state’s northernmost outpost, plays host to wolves, elk and backpackers.

Self-proclaimed “Yoopers” from the U.P. are connected to the rest of the district in Northern Michigan only by the Mackinac Bridge. Despite being Michiganders, Yoopers, isolated from the rest of their state, tend to identify culturally with nearby Wisconsinites or Canadians. Although logging remains important, nearly tapped-out resources in the existing mining industry now provide only modest incomes for district residents. Keweenaw County, once a booming copper mining center at the northern tip of the U.P., now has the highest unemployment rate in the state.

The district has suffered from recent national economic downturns, the continuing auto industry decline and steady population loss. Housing markets have crashed in Lower Peninsula lakefront towns such as Petoskey, Torch Lake and Charlevoix, established beach resort and second-home havens for residents of the state and visitors from across the upper Midwest.

There is a strong current of social conservatism in the 1st, particularly with regard to gun rights, although Democrats still dominate local politics. Democrat Barack Obama eked out a 2-percentage-point victory here in the 2008 presidential election.[1]

Electoral History & the 2010 Elections (from CQPolitics)

Bart Stupak’s image as a center-right Democrat helped him build a long House career in northern Michigan’s conservative-leaning 1st District — and his decision not to run for re-election hampers Democrats’ prospects for holding onto the seat. CQ Politics’ rating on the 1st District race, at Safe Democratic prior to Stupak’s April 9 retirement announcement, now rates the 1st District race a Tossup.

Since first winning the seat in 1992, Stupak has been re-elected by comfortable margins by voters in the vast district, which takes in all of the largely rural Upper Peninsula and a sizable chunk of the Lower Peninsula inland from the coast of Lake Huron. The swing district, which has a history of favoring moderates from both parties, narrowly went for Barack Obama as the 2008 Democratic presidential nominee, but a backlash against Democratic leadership at the state and national levels has given Republicans momentum in what’s expected to be a hard-fought contest for the open seat.
Stupak’s decision came shortly after he had played a highly visible role — and had become the target of attacks from both ends of the ideological spectrum — in the climactic debates that preceded the enactment of the sweeping legislation to overhaul the nation’s health care system.

Activists on the left first assailed him for leading a bloc that demanded language barring any federal money from being used to obtain an abortion. Then conservatives, some of whom had hailed Stupak as a hero for his stand, turned on him after he brokered a compromise and cast a crucial vote in favor of final passage of the legislation, a major policy and political priority for President Obama and the leaders of the congressional Democratic majority. “Tea Party” activists launched an ad campaign against him and held rallies in his district.

There’s already a Democrat in the race who had been ready to challenge Stupak from the left in the Aug. 3 primary: former Charlevoix County Commissioner Connie Saltonstall, who has the backing of NARAL Pro-Choice America, Planned Parenthood and National Organization of Women. She has raised nearly $100,000 on the Democratic fundraising site Act Blue.

But Bill Ballenger, publisher of Inside Michigan Politics, said Democrats “better come up with somebody who is pro-life” if they hope to win in Stupak’s socially conservative district.

Among the names circulating in Michigan are those of Michael Prusi, the state Senate’s Democratic leader, and state Rep. Jeff Mayes. Ballenger said Prusi as “ideally positioned” to defend the seat for the Democratic Party. Former state Rep. Don Koivisto, who now heads the state Agriculture Department, also could make a credible run, he said.

Democrats also are looking at state Reps. Gary McDowell, Mike Lahti, Judy Nerat and Steve Lindberg as possible contenders.

Some rookie Republican candidates were already running, and now that there’s no incumbent to try to topple, more seasoned GOP officials are expected to consider the race.

The leader among Republicans who’ve already declared is surgeon Dan Benishek, who enjoyed a fundraising surge after Stupak’s health care vote.

State Sen. Jason Allen, who is term-limited this year, and former state Rep. Tom Casperson would be serious GOP contenders should they choose to run. Casperson, who is running for the state Senate, lost to Stupak in 2008, but had been a strong vote-getter in statehouse races, Ballenger said.

Former state Rep. Scott Shackleton could be another strong candidate for the GOP in a district that favored Obama over Republican John McCain by 50 percent to 48 percent, but before that gave Republican George W. Bush 53 percent of its votes in each of the prior two presidential elections.[2]

[1] “Politics in America District Profile,” CQPolitics - http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=district-2010-MI-01
[2] “Michigan – 1st District,” CQPolitics - http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=district-2010-MI-01