Election Day

I just voted, which is always a feel good exercise. I am "post-cynical" which means that I was cynical, but have moved beyond it to observe that often, a Cigar is indeed a Cigar. Elections are not ruling class farces nor are they scheduled revolutions, but they do give the country, nationally and locally defined, a chance to express their opinions. Some of those opinions are crazy but we hope the system makes it easy enough for the crazy to talk; but challenging to pass legislation.

Massachusetts has a series of very close elections and has the remote chance of electing three statewide Republicans - Governor, Auditor, and Treasurer. I am going to venture a prediction that they will win two of the three.

What is surprising to me is the magnitude of the Republican lead nationally, and the long running voter discontent.

So I thought I would make some predictions -- no links -- I have been reading election commentary for two days now and pretty much everything has been said. So what follows is a random series of disconnected observations.

-NO ONE predicted that the R's would take over the House just two-years after the Obama election. I said at the time the election was over-interpreted. People were not happy with Bush; the Republicans had been in charge for a while and they wanted a change. Obama was that change. They didn't vote for an ideology.

-Two things were very important in that election. The US elected an African-American President. This now sounds like such a trite observation, but it was historic. Secondly, young voters trended heavily democrat which may have generational effects. Watch who they vote for in this election.

-However, the "youth vote" was also over-interpreted. They made up 18% of the electorate. They made up 17% four years earlier.

-There are a lot of prominent women running on the Republican ticket and they have been treated terribly by the media. "Crazy" and "Whore" are just some of the words used by opponents to describe them. This isn't a defense of Sharron Angle (or to suggest that some candidates do have irrational views -- poorly defended) but why does this kind of double standard go so unnoticed?

-The country is still fairly politicized -- turnout will be high -- but it will be a different group. My guess is that it will tilt older and angrier -- and young people will not make up 18% of the final vote.

-Voter anger is old. This is the third "historic throw the bums out" election in a row. This says not that Obama was wrong -- or the Tea Party on the right track -- but that NO ONE has found a governing formula to address what people are really concerned about.

-Speaking of "governing" if the Republicans, under the influence of Tea, try to repeal Health Care or amend the Constitution or impeach Obama they will prove themselves fools. Obama lost a lot of ground talking about Health Care, an issue that people don't care about all that much, instead of jobs, an issue they do. Republicans appear poised to do the same in reverse. My bet, health care stays but it won't advance much.

-What do Americans want? Well, they don't want the same thing which is a part of the problem. Generally though, an economic based, populist message might work. Obama swung and missed big by not going after bonuses -- his chance to really play the populist card. Some snorting from the Wall Street Journal is surely worth showing some sensitivity to the perception (reality?) that big guys got a better deal. Obama has also done a surprisingly poor job selling his accomplishments. I mentioned health care is here to stay. I will go further -- within the next ten years it will become very popular -- it is a permanent feature of our landscape now -- although it will change and grow in fits and starts.

-Democrats over and underestimate the Tea Party at the same time. The overestimate its unity, but they underestimate the power of the lower taxes/small government/fear of government message to Americans. They simply don't have the power to understand it. The Tea Party will eventually become disappointed (see "no constitutional amendments" and "health care stays" and will lose steam; probably going back to the Republican party or staying at home.

-Republicans underestimate the extent to which a genuine SMALL message is out there. They are way to tight with Corporations and, really, wedded to big government (especially the military) but a lot of the Tea party isn't thrilled with the military, big business, or big government.

-I'm at a loss as to where social issues are in the electorate. My gut feeling is that gay marriage is rapidly becoming a non-issue; gays in the military has been pushed to the podium, but will only give a short speech. Abortion is probably a permanent presence on the stage -- but after that -- what is a social issue anymore? What are "traditional family values" and who is attacking them? Are Republicans going to repeal divorce? Make adultery punishable by stoning? Forbid teen sex? Picking on Christine O'Donnell isn't fair, she has already (probably) cost the R's a senate seat, but should we really keep our hands off the economy -- and ourselves? Republicans have been promising stuff to the Moral Right for years and only throwing the occasional prayer their way. When are they going to figure that out?

-Republicans are going to pick up a lot of seats. I'm guessing 60-65. There is "balance" and "anger" losses. Balance losses -- just getting seats back where they belong after the last two Democratic blow-outs -- are around 30-40. After that it is anger. But it is anti-system anger; not anti-democratic. The democrats just got caught sitting in the "system chair" in our game of musical pissed off.

-I liked this quote -- which goes to show the danger of running against Washington, while trying to get there:

“Part of what’s happened is we’ve had three election cycles where we’ve convinced people that the system sucks,” Democratic consultant Dave Beattie said Monday. “And they truly believe that the system sucks. So we’ve succeeded in convincing people of that, and now we have to live with their anger at being in a political system that sucks.”

-Here is what some folks were saying two years ago. Rothenberg is about right. The New Republic may be, someday, in some world.


Rothenberg:

New Republic:

Every election encourages talk about the bigger picture. What is the bigger picture? More to come on that soon.